?
arrow_backBack to match
WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Liquidloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Ori · 23 games
61%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 18 games
78%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 18 games
83%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 17 games
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Dy · 16 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ELeVeN · 16 games
69%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Dy · 15 games
73%
Mars
Marssignature
ELeVeN · 15 games
60%

Team Liquid

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Taiga · 19 games
47%
Puck
Pucksignature
miCKe · 18 games
61%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 15 games
47%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Taiga · 12 games
75%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
iNSaNiA · 11 games
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 10 games
30%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Boxi · 9 games
56%
Razor
Razorsignature
qojqva · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
394 picks · 214 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
392 picks · 1000 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
385 picks · 634 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
368 picks · 358 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
332 picks · 186 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
298 picks · 208 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
289 picks · 221 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
276 picks · 371 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 46%
Hero pool strength56% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total68% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:13
Vici Gaming 61%Team Liquid 39%
The model gave 61% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 39:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightOri
56% · 113 games50% · 67 games
MedusamiCKe
Medusa
Spectre
Spectrepoyoyo
53% · 34 games45% · 227 games
PuckSumaiL
Puck
Mars
MarsELeVeN
54% · 223 games52% · 48 games
Doomqojqva
Doom
Dark Willow
Dark WillowPyw
55% · 62 games53% · 94 games
EnchantressTaiga
Enchantress
Snapfire
SnapfireDy
44% · 180 games45% · 176 games
GrimstrokeiNSaNiA
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct33:26
Vici Gaming 63%Team Liquid 37%
The model gave 63% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 38:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinOri
59% · 47 games48% · 55 games
Phantom AssassinmiCKe
Phantom Assassin
Spectre
Spectrepoyoyo
40% · 21 game52% · 85 games
LeshracSumaiL
Leshrac
Mars
MarsELeVeN
54% · 149 games48% · 48 games
Axeqojqva
Axe
Dark Willow
Dark WillowPyw
50% · 49 games42% · 120 games
TinyTaiga
Tiny
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionDy
54% · 75 games46% · 33 games
Winter WyverniNSaNiA
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 68%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2