?
arrow_backBack to match
WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TNC Predatorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Mars
Marssignature
Tavo · 11 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KJ · 7 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Kingrd · 6 games
83%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
4dr · 6 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
KJ · 5 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
4dr · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
Thiolicor · 5 games
40%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
KJ · 5 games
80%

TNC Predator

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Armel · 11 games
73%
Mirana
Mirana
Tims · 11 games
36%
Tiny
Tiny
Gabbi · 8 games
50%
Lion
Lionsignature
Tims · 7 games
86%
Puck
Pucksignature
Armel · 7 games
71%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Gabbi · 6 games
67%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Febby · 6 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Armel · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
391 picks · 213 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
389 picks · 1004 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 634 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
366 picks · 358 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
328 picks · 185 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
294 picks · 208 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
289 picks · 221 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
276 picks · 371 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% TNC Predator
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:29
Evil Geniuses 74%TNC Predator 26%
The model gave 74% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 30:00.
Game 2prediction missed38:31
Evil Geniuses 74%TNC Predator 26%
The model gave 74% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 49:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 74%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2