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BTS Pro Series Season 6. ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:1
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Lilgunloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 24 games
71%
Puck
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 23 games
65%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Yopaj · 18 games
61%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
PlayHard · 15 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
PlayHard · 15 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 14 games
79%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 14 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 12 games
50%

Lilgun

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
390 picks · 214 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
390 picks · 1006 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 634 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
365 picks · 358 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
328 picks · 185 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
292 picks · 207 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
291 picks · 221 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
276 picks · 611 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 31%
Hero pool strength57% Neon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total79% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:9
Neon Esports 79%Lilgun 21%
The model gave 79% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 24:16.
Game 2prediction missed15:43
Neon Esports 79%Lilgun 21%
The model gave 79% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Lilgun in 31:50.
Game 3prediction correct34:8
Neon Esports 79%Lilgun 21%
The model gave 79% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 26:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 79%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3