WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO1
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingloss 0:1series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Nigma Galaxywin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Nigma Galaxy
Puckoften banned
Miracle- · 11 games
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 10 games
Iooften banned
GH · 9 games
Dark Seeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
Dark Willowsignature
GH · 8 games
Marssignature
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
Void Spiritsignature
Miracle- · 8 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
390 picks · 1003 bans
Lion
389 picks · 214 bans
Mars
380 picks · 633 bans
Grimstroke
365 picks · 358 bans
Snapfire
327 picks · 185 bans
Tiny
292 picks · 207 bans
Tusk
291 picks · 221 bans
Centaur Warrunner
275 picks · 369 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:24
Invictus Gaming 70%Nigma Galaxy 30%
The model gave 70% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 28:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 70%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1