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WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Secretloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 10 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Miracle- · 10 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
GH · 8 games
75%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Miracle- · 8 games
63%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 7 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
GH · 7 games
43%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 7 games
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 7 games
43%

Team Secret

Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 10 games
70%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
YapzOr · 9 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zai · 7 games
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
YapzOr · 7 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 6 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
zai · 6 games
67%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 6 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Puppey · 6 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
388 picks · 215 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
388 picks · 1003 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
377 picks · 630 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
363 picks · 360 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
324 picks · 185 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
292 picks · 205 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
292 picks · 221 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
276 picks · 612 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% Team Secret
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:14
Nigma Galaxy 45%Team Secret 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 31:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopteriLTW
33% · 53 games60% · 56 games
Templar AssassinNisha
Templar Assassin
Razor
RazorMiracle-
50% · 29 games57% · 6 games
Lone DruidMATUMBAMAN
Lone Druid
Mars
MarsMinD_ContRoL
45% · 113 games54% · 47 games
Axezai
Axe
Lion
LionKuroKy
45% · 121 game61% · 98 games
EnchantressPuppey
Enchantress
Io
IoGH
42% · 44 games53% · 153 games
SnapfireYapzOr
Snapfire
Game 2prediction missed8:30
Nigma Galaxy 52%Team Secret 48%
The model gave 52% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Team Secret in 43:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckMiracle-
50% · 224 games48% · 78 games
UrsaMATUMBAMAN
Ursa
Spectre
SpectreiLTW
53% · 34 games41% · 94 games
Dragon KnightNisha
Dragon Knight
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMinD_ContRoL
64% · 52 games47% · 46 games
Underlordzai
Underlord
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernKuroKy
60% · 22 games36% · 19 games
Skywrath MageYapzOr
Skywrath Mage
Io
IoGH
56% · 44 games45% · 139 games
GrimstrokePuppey
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 53%
Accuracy by game0 of 2