WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 14 games
Marssignature
Rupido · 11 games
Elder Titansignature
RR · 9 games
Oracleoften banned
RR · 8 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Force · 7 games
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Yowe · 6 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Yowe · 6 games
Vici Gaming
Void Spiritsignature
Ori · 22 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 18 games
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 17 games
Death Prophetsignature
Dy · 16 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Dy · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
ELeVeN · 16 games
Elder Titansignature
Dy · 14 games
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
386 picks · 998 bans
Lion
381 picks · 212 bans
Mars
372 picks · 622 bans
Grimstroke
359 picks · 362 bans
Snapfire
322 picks · 184 bans
Tusk
290 picks · 221 bans
Tiny
288 picks · 198 bans
Death Prophet
279 picks · 614 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:31
Execration 54%Vici Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Execration — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 39:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkPalos
Juggernautpoyoyo
TinyYowe
Ember SpiritOri
MarsForce
BroodmotherELeVeN
Elder TitanRR
Shadow DemonPyw
45% · 145 games
GrimstrokeDy
Game 2prediction correct46:33
Execration 51%Vici Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 46:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinYowe
Ursapoyoyo
LeshracPalos
Void SpiritOri
Dark SeerForce
Chaos KnightELeVeN
GrimstrokeRR
LionPyw
54% · 68 games
Elder TitanDy
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2