WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Invictus Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 10 games
Puckoften banned
w33 · 10 games
Void Spiritsignature
Miracle- · 8 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 7 games
Clockwerk
GH · 7 games
Dark Willowsignature
GH · 7 games
Iooften banned
GH · 7 games
Dark Seeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
386 picks · 998 bans
Lion
381 picks · 212 bans
Mars
372 picks · 622 bans
Grimstroke
359 picks · 362 bans
Snapfire
322 picks · 184 bans
Tusk
290 picks · 221 bans
Tiny
288 picks · 198 bans
Death Prophet
279 picks · 614 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:51
Nigma Galaxy 31%Invictus Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 42:49.
Game 2prediction correct38:41
Nigma Galaxy 31%Invictus Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Invictus Gaming in 51:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 69%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2