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WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
AS Monaco Gambitloss 1:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Execrationloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AS Monaco Gambit

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
xsvampire · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Blizzy · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
PuberrrR · 4 games
25%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
xannii · 4 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 4 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
75%
Mirana
Mirana
xsvampire · 3 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
100%

Execration

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 14 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
Rupido · 11 games
64%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
RR · 9 games
89%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
RR · 8 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Force · 7 games
57%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 7 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Yowe · 6 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Yowe · 6 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
385 picks · 996 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
380 picks · 212 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
372 picks · 620 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
358 picks · 362 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
321 picks · 184 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
290 picks · 221 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
288 picks · 198 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
279 picks · 614 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% Execration
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:12
AS Monaco Gambit 41%Execration 59%
The model gave 59% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 36:12.
Game 2prediction correct28:7
AS Monaco Gambit 41%Execration 59%
The model gave 59% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 29:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 59%
Accuracy by game2 of 2