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WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:1
AS Monaco Gambitloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zai · 7 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 7 games
57%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
YapzOr · 7 games
71%
Tusk
Tusksignature
YapzOr · 7 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
zai · 6 games
67%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 6 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Nisha · 5 games
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Puppey · 5 games
100%

AS Monaco Gambit

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
xsvampire · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Blizzy · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
PuberrrR · 4 games
25%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
xannii · 4 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 4 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
75%
Mirana
Mirana
xsvampire · 3 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
383 picks · 997 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
381 picks · 212 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
371 picks · 619 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
357 picks · 362 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
318 picks · 184 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
292 picks · 221 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
286 picks · 197 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
281 picks · 616 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 53%
Hero pool strength56% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:11
Team Secret 52%AS Monaco Gambit 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 38:05.
Game 2prediction missed11:21
Team Secret 52%AS Monaco Gambit 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Secret — the game was taken by AS Monaco Gambit in 40:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2