Pinnacle Cup · BO5
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamloss 2:3series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 2:3
Team Spiritwin 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winstrike Team
Phoenixoften banned
yamich · 15 games
Pucksignature
re1bl · 15 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 14 games
Void Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 12 games
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 11 games
Marsoften banned
chshrct · 10 games
Oracleoften banned
Panto · 10 games
Lion
yamich · 9 games
Team Spirit
Miranasignature
Mira · 19 games
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 17 games
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
Marssignature
Collapse · 13 games
Oraclesignature
Miposhka · 13 games
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 13 games
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Yatoro · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
384 picks · 992 bans
Lion
380 picks · 213 bans
Mars
368 picks · 616 bans
Grimstroke
351 picks · 361 bans
Snapfire
316 picks · 183 bans
Tusk
293 picks · 221 bans
Tiny
283 picks · 196 bans
Death Prophet
281 picks · 618 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 79%
Hero pool strength61% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total79% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:17
Winstrike Team 32%Team Spirit 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 37:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopterdyrachyo
DoomTORONTOTOKYO
Linare1bl
JuggernautYatoro
Tidehunterchshrct
MarsCollapse
Phoenixyamich
MiranaMira
ClockwerkPanto
GrimstrokeMiposhka
Game 2prediction correct18:28
Winstrike Team 34%Team Spirit 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 41:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Linare1bl
Templar AssassinTORONTOTOKYO
Lifestealerdyrachyo
Faceless VoidYatoro
Tidehunterchshrct
MarsCollapse
Nyx Assassinyamich
PhoenixMira
Winter WyvernPanto
GrimstrokeMiposhka
Game 3prediction missed32:9
Winstrike Team 34%Team Spirit 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 28:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristlebackdyrachyo
LunaYatoro
Templar Assassinre1bl
Void SpiritCollapse
Batriderchshrct
TinyTORONTOTOKYO
Clockwerkyamich
OracleMiposhka
Ancient ApparitionPanto
GrimstrokeMira
Game 4prediction correct15:26
Winstrike Team 34%Team Spirit 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 45:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Svendyrachyo
Phantom LancerYatoro
Linare1bl
Ember SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Batriderchshrct
MiranaMira
Clockwerkyamich
MarsCollapse
Winter WyvernPanto
SnapfireMiposhka
Game 5prediction correct8:42
Winstrike Team 32%Team Spirit 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusadyrachyo
UrsaYatoro
Void Spiritre1bl
PuckTORONTOTOKYO
Axechshrct
BatriderCollapse
Phoenixyamich
TinyMira
ClockwerkPanto
GrimstrokeMiposhka
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 79%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5