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BTS Pro Series Season 6. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxy SEAwin 2:0
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Omega Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy SEA

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
AlaCrity · 10 games
60%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
343 · 9 games
44%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
AlaCrity · 8 games
25%
Puck
Puckoften banned
AlaCrity · 8 games
50%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Ghost · 8 games
63%
Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 7 games
71%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Poloson · 6 games
83%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
AlaCrity · 5 games
80%

Omega Esports

Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Mac · 15 games
60%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
cml · 14 games
71%
Tiny
Tiny
Tino- · 11 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Sam_H · 10 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Sam_H · 9 games
78%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
cml · 9 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 9 games
67%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
cml · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
377 picks · 207 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
374 picks · 977 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
363 picks · 602 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
345 picks · 356 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
315 picks · 181 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
286 picks · 221 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
280 picks · 191 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
276 picks · 611 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% Omega Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% Omega Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:27
Nigma Galaxy SEA 46%Omega Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 42:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightMeracle
57% · 6 games51% · 56 games
UrsaTino-
Ursa
Slark
SlarkinYourdreaM
46% · 21 game49% · 26 games
BristlebackMac
Bristleback
Kunkka
KunkkaAlaCrity
49% · 30 games55% · 30 games
Dragon KnightSam_H
Dragon Knight
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionPoloson
58% · 39 games56% · 88 games
Nyx Assassincml
Nyx Assassin
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeJhocam
37% · 104 games
Game 2prediction missed39:17
Nigma Galaxy SEA 47%Omega Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 34:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorinYourdreaM
57% · 39 games37% · 24 games
Arc WardenTino-
Arc Warden
Puck
PuckAlaCrity
45% · 206 games50% · 222 games
MarsSam_H
Mars
Sand King
Sand KingMeracle
42% · 61 game55% · 128 games
TinyMac
Tiny
Snapfire
SnapfireJhocam
49% · 128 games50% · 192 games
Grimstrokecml
Grimstroke
Phoenix
PhoenixPoloson
57% · 132 games
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Esports · 55%
Series resultNigma Galaxy SEA 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2