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BTS Pro Series Season 6. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Motivate.Trust Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team SMGloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Motivate.Trust Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Q · 6 games
83%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
LionaX · 5 games
60%
Lion
Lion
Q · 5 games
80%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Q · 5 games
60%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
LionaX · 4 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 4 games
100%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
JaCkky · 4 games
75%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
JaCkky · 4 games
50%

Team SMG

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
vtFαded · 7 games
43%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
AhFu · 7 games
29%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
ninjaboogie · 6 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
AhFu · 6 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Mushi · 6 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
AhFu · 6 games
50%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
MidOne · 5 games
60%
Lion
Lion
Mushi · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
375 picks · 207 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
373 picks · 977 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
364 picks · 600 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
343 picks · 359 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
314 picks · 179 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
286 picks · 221 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
278 picks · 191 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
277 picks · 611 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total71% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:31
Motivate.Trust Gaming 62%Team SMG 38%
The model gave 62% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 36:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinJaCkky
46% · 80 games43% · 76 games
MorphlingMidOne
Morphling
Invoker
InvokerFearless
63% · 49 games56% · 51 game
Beastmasterkpii
Beastmaster
Clockwerk
ClockwerkQ
52% · 79 games44% · 122 games
GrimstrokeAhFu
Grimstroke
Lion
LionLionaX
50% · 117 games51% · 76 games
EnchantressRoddgeee
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed20:38
Motivate.Trust Gaming 63%Team SMG 37%
The model gave 63% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Team SMG in 41:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaJaCkky
53% · 24 games46% · 89 games
Void SpiritMidOne
Void Spirit
Kunkka
KunkkaFearless
46% · 27 games55% · 57 games
Tidehunterkpii
Tidehunter
Lion
LionQ
49% · 89 games56% · 33 games
LinaAhFu
Lina
Elder Titan
Elder TitanLionaX
48% · 68 games51% · 29 games
WarlockRoddgeee
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 71%
Accuracy by game1 of 2