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BTS Pro Series Season 6. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team SMGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 23 games
70%
Puck
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 22 games
68%
Sand King
Sand King
Yopaj · 17 games
59%
Tusk
Tusk
PlayHard · 15 games
53%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
PlayHard · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 14 games
79%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 13 games
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 12 games
50%

Team SMG

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
vtFαded · 7 games
43%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
ninjaboogie · 6 games
33%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
AhFu · 6 games
33%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Mushi · 6 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
AhFu · 6 games
50%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
MidOne · 5 games
60%
Lion
Lion
Mushi · 5 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Ohaiyo · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
375 picks · 207 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
373 picks · 976 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
364 picks · 600 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
341 picks · 359 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
314 picks · 178 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
286 picks · 221 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
278 picks · 191 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
277 picks · 611 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 52%
Hero pool strength59% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:8
Neon Esports 59%Team SMG 41%
The model gave 59% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 24:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYopaj
51% · 69 games48% · 42 games
Doomkpii
Doom
Ursa
UrsaNatsumi
48% · 66 games56% · 43 games
Faceless VoidMidOne
Faceless Void
Sand King
Sand KingSkem
43% · 42 games53% · 135 games
Earth SpiritAhFu
Earth Spirit
Mirana
MiranaPlayHard
51% · 82 games50% · 146 games
GrimstrokeRoddgeee
Grimstroke
Oracle
OracleJaunuel
47% · 107 games
Game 2prediction correct45:34
Neon Esports 60%Team SMG 40%
The model gave 60% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 34:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinNatsumi
46% · 29 games58% · 57 games
Faceless VoidMidOne
Faceless Void
Void Spirit
Void SpiritYopaj
51% · 76 games33% · 10 games
Omniknightkpii
Omniknight
Dark Seer
Dark SeerSkem
52% · 33 games42% · 185 games
GrimstrokeAhFu
Grimstroke
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinPlayHard
61% · 56 gameslittle data
PudgeRoddgeee
Pudge
Oracle
OracleJaunuel
46% · 58 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 69%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2