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BTS Pro Series Season 6. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
South Built Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Motivate.Trust Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

South Built Esports

Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 6 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Enryu · 5 games
80%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Enryu · 5 games
40%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Abat · 5 games
80%
Tiny
Tiny
Bob · 5 games
20%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Abat · 5 games
20%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Bob · 4 games
25%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Abat · 3 games
0%

Motivate.Trust Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Q · 5 games
80%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
LionaX · 5 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Q · 5 games
60%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
LionaX · 4 games
75%
Lion
Lion
Q · 4 games
75%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
JaCkky · 4 games
75%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
JaCkky · 4 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
373 picks · 207 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
373 picks · 978 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
362 picks · 595 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
340 picks · 360 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
311 picks · 178 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
286 picks · 219 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
276 picks · 614 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
274 picks · 188 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 79%
Hero pool strength59% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total89% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:45
South Built Esports 24%Motivate.Trust Gaming 76%
The model gave 76% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 27:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageAbat
53% · 24 games56% · 51 game
JuggernautJaCkky
Juggernaut
Leshrac
LeshracMarb
46% · 69 games56% · 30 games
InvokerFearless
Invoker
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerEnryu
55% · 85 games41% · 37 games
ClockwerkQ
Clockwerk
46% · 60 games
LionLionaX
Lion
Game 2prediction correct28:44
South Built Esports 26%Motivate.Trust Gaming 74%
The model gave 74% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 38:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorAbat
68% · 20 games45% · 36 games
Monkey KingJaCkky
Monkey King
Viper
ViperMarb
54% · 47 games54% · 17 games
Storm SpiritFearless
Storm Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingEnryu
45% · 33 games50% · 16 games
Dark WillowQ
Dark Willow
42% · 31 game
AbaddonLionaX
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 89%
Series resultMotivate.Trust Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2