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BTS Pro Series Season 6. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Motivate.Trust Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 22 games
68%
Puck
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 22 games
68%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Yopaj · 16 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 14 games
79%
Tusk
Tusk
Jaunuel · 14 games
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
PlayHard · 13 games
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 12 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Yopaj · 11 games
55%

Motivate.Trust Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Q · 5 games
80%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
LionaX · 5 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Q · 5 games
60%
Lion
Lion
Q · 4 games
75%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
JaCkky · 4 games
75%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
LionaX · 3 games
100%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
JaCkky · 3 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Fearless · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
374 picks · 207 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
374 picks · 978 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
364 picks · 592 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
341 picks · 360 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
311 picks · 176 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
288 picks · 219 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
276 picks · 614 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
273 picks · 188 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 83%
Hero pool strength51% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:19
Neon Esports 39%Motivate.Trust Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 37:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYopaj
52% · 43 games48% · 158 games
Wraith KingJaCkky
Wraith King
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNatsumi
49% · 144 games44% · 121 game
TinyFearless
Tiny
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSkem
54% · 84 games43% · 155 games
RubickQ
Rubick
Mirana
MiranaPlayHard
59% · 91 game55% · 72 games
Ancient ApparitionLionaX
Ancient Apparition
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinJaunuel
50% · 144 games
Game 2prediction correct25:41
Neon Esports 41%Motivate.Trust Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 48:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingNatsumi
52% · 51 game43% · 71 game
Storm SpiritFearless
Storm Spirit
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSkem
58% · 44 games46% · 24 games
RikiJaCkky
Riki
Sand King
Sand KingYopaj
45% · 27 games51% · 86 games
MiranaQ
Mirana
Tusk
TuskPlayHard
53% · 72 games47% · 48 games
UndyingLionaX
Undying
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionJaunuel
55% · 35 games
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 71%
Accuracy by game1 of 2