Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaiserswin 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Chicken Fightersloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
374 picks · 207 bans
Puck
374 picks · 978 bans
Mars
364 picks · 592 bans
Grimstroke
341 picks · 360 bans
Snapfire
311 picks · 176 bans
Tusk
288 picks · 219 bans
Death Prophet
276 picks · 614 bans
Tiny
273 picks · 188 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 58%
Hero pool strength50% HellRaisers
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total50% Chicken Fighters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:11
HellRaisers 50%Chicken Fighters 50%
The model gave 50% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 31:08.
Game 2prediction correct9:26
HellRaisers 50%Chicken Fighters 50%
The model gave 50% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Chicken Fighters in 27:47.
Game 3prediction correct27:40
HellRaisers 50%Chicken Fighters 50%
The model gave 50% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Chicken Fighters in 47:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Fighters · 50%
Series resultHellRaisers 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3