BTS Pro Series Season 6. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Lilgunloss 0:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxy SEAwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Nigma Galaxy SEA
Ember Spiritsignature
AlaCrity · 10 games
Ogre Magi
343 · 9 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Ghost · 8 games
Juggernautoften banned
AlaCrity · 7 games
Puckoften banned
AlaCrity · 7 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Poloson · 5 games
Lion
Jhocam · 5 games
Morphlingoften banned
AlaCrity · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
375 picks · 976 bans
Lion
372 picks · 205 bans
Mars
364 picks · 592 bans
Grimstroke
341 picks · 360 bans
Snapfire
309 picks · 176 bans
Tusk
289 picks · 219 bans
Death Prophet
276 picks · 615 bans
Tiny
272 picks · 187 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total68% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:11
Lilgun 32%Nigma Galaxy SEA 68%
The model gave 68% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 31:20.
Game 2prediction correct16:26
Lilgun 32%Nigma Galaxy SEA 68%
The model gave 68% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 30:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 68%
Series resultNigma Galaxy SEA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2