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Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
ViKin.ggwin 2:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spiritloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ViKin.gg

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 24 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 23 games
70%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Aramis · 20 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
BOOM · 19 games
68%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Shad · 18 games
78%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Aramis · 18 games
72%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
KheZu · 16 games
81%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 16 games
63%

Team Spirit

Mirana
Miranasignature
Mira · 17 games
88%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 14 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 13 games
62%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
54%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
Miposhka · 12 games
75%
Puck
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
92%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 12 games
92%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Yatoro · 10 games
90%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
375 picks · 972 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
372 picks · 203 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
363 picks · 588 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
339 picks · 360 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
308 picks · 175 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
288 picks · 219 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
275 picks · 615 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
268 picks · 183 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)79% vs 80%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total52% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:13
ViKin.gg 48%Team Spirit 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 44:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaShad
48% · 91 game62% · 136 games
Wraith KingYatoro
Wraith King
Lina
LinaBOOM
46% · 90 games54% · 60 games
ViperTORONTOTOKYO
Viper
Pangolier
PangolierKheZu
50% · 73 games49% · 118 games
TidehunterCollapse
Tidehunter
Tiny
TinyAramis
45% · 111 games48% · 130 games
SnapfireMira
Snapfire
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeSeleri
42% · 170 games57% · 91 game
Ancient ApparitionMiposhka
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed36:28
ViKin.gg 48%Team Spirit 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 52:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingShad
51% · 74 games51% · 56 games
ViperTORONTOTOKYO
Viper
Enigma
EnigmaKheZu
50% · 16 games58% · 43 games
Faceless VoidYatoro
Faceless Void
Lina
LinaBOOM
43% · 59 games50% · 62 games
Ancient ApparitionMiposhka
Ancient Apparition
Tiny
TinyAramis
42% · 75 games55% · 55 games
Dark WillowMira
Dark Willow
Undying
UndyingSeleri
48% · 15 games60% · 23 games
MagnusCollapse
Magnus
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 52%
Series resultViKin.gg 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2