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BTS Pro Series Season 6. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Motivate.Trust Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxy SEAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Motivate.Trust Gaming

Elder Titan
Elder Titan
LionaX · 5 games
60%
Lion
Lion
Q · 4 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Q · 3 games
100%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
JaCkky · 3 games
100%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
LionaX · 2 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Fearless · 2 games
100%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
JaCkky · 2 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Fearless · 2 games
100%

Nigma Galaxy SEA

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
AlaCrity · 10 games
60%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
343 · 9 games
44%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Ghost · 8 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
AlaCrity · 7 games
43%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
AlaCrity · 6 games
17%
Lion
Lion
Jhocam · 5 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
AlaCrity · 5 games
100%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Ghost · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
376 picks · 971 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
370 picks · 202 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
363 picks · 586 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
338 picks · 360 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
305 picks · 174 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
288 picks · 218 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
277 picks · 616 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
265 picks · 452 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)88% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:45
Motivate.Trust Gaming 59%Nigma Galaxy SEA 41%
The model gave 59% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 52:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaJaCkky
49% · 56 games62% · 36 games
RazorinYourdreaM
Razor
Tiny
TinyFearless
43% · 76 games53% · 76 games
JuggernautAlaCrity
Juggernaut
Snapfire
SnapfireLionaX
45% · 85 games71% · 6 games
Chaos KnightMeracle
Chaos Knight
Clockwerk
ClockwerkQ
45% · 51 game48% · 59 games
LinaJhocam
Lina
57% · 91 game
Elder TitanPoloson
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct46:25
Motivate.Trust Gaming 58%Nigma Galaxy SEA 42%
The model gave 58% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 1:03:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingJaCkky
54% · 85 games57% · 56 games
InvokerAlaCrity
Invoker
Riki
RikiFearless
34% · 12 games50% · 14 games
BroodmotherMeracle
Broodmother
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonLionaX
48% · 38 games48% · 37 games
Faceless VoidinYourdreaM
Faceless Void
Snapfire
SnapfireQ
51% · 88 games46% · 51 game
Ancient ApparitionPoloson
Ancient Apparition
48% · 65 games
TinyJhocam
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 69%
Series resultMotivate.Trust Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2