Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Chicken Fighterswin 2:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PuckChamploss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
375 picks · 970 bans
Lion
370 picks · 202 bans
Mars
362 picks · 585 bans
Grimstroke
338 picks · 360 bans
Snapfire
304 picks · 174 bans
Tusk
288 picks · 218 bans
Death Prophet
276 picks · 616 bans
Tiny
264 picks · 182 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% Chicken Fighters
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:20
Chicken Fighters 40%PuckChamp 60%
The model gave 60% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 26:30.
Game 2prediction correct32:27
Chicken Fighters 40%PuckChamp 60%
The model gave 60% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 37:24.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 60%
Series resultChicken Fighters 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2