BTS Pro Series Season 6. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lilgunloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 22 games
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 20 games
Sand Kingsignature
Yopaj · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 14 games
Tusk
Jaunuel · 14 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
PlayHard · 13 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 12 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Skem · 11 games
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
376 picks · 970 bans
Lion
371 picks · 202 bans
Mars
361 picks · 586 bans
Grimstroke
337 picks · 359 bans
Snapfire
304 picks · 174 bans
Tusk
288 picks · 218 bans
Death Prophet
276 picks · 618 bans
Void Spirit
264 picks · 453 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 31%
Hero pool strength57% Neon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total80% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:20
Neon Esports 80%Lilgun 20%
The model gave 80% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 26:49.
Game 2prediction correct41:39
Neon Esports 80%Lilgun 20%
The model gave 80% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 54:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 80%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2