ESL One Summer 2021. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Uniqueloss 0:2series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 0:2
ViKin.ggwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
ViKin.gg
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 24 games
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 23 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Aramis · 20 games
Pucksignature
BOOM · 19 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
KheZu · 15 games
Tinysignature
BOOM · 15 games
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 14 games
Juggernautsignature
Shad · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
378 picks · 972 bans
Lion
370 picks · 201 bans
Mars
362 picks · 585 bans
Grimstroke
339 picks · 362 bans
Snapfire
294 picks · 172 bans
Tusk
289 picks · 218 bans
Death Prophet
282 picks · 625 bans
Void Spirit
272 picks · 464 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 82%
Hero pool strength61% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total89% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct3:14
Team Unique 11%ViKin.gg 89%
The model gave 89% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 35:19.
Game 2prediction correct26:7
Team Unique 11%ViKin.gg 89%
The model gave 89% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 29:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 89%
Series resultViKin.gg 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2