BTS Pro Series Season 6. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SBSouth Built Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 22 games
Mirana
PlayHard · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 14 games
Sand King
Yopaj · 14 games
Tusk
Jaunuel · 14 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
PlayHard · 13 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 12 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Skem · 11 games
South Built Esports
Alchemistoften banned
Enryu · 5 games
Gyrocopter
Abat · 5 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Enryu · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Bob · 4 games
Ursaoften banned
Abat · 4 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Abat · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Enryu · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
380 picks · 969 bans
Lion
369 picks · 199 bans
Mars
362 picks · 585 bans
Grimstroke
339 picks · 360 bans
Snapfire
294 picks · 172 bans
Tusk
288 picks · 218 bans
Death Prophet
281 picks · 628 bans
Void Spirit
272 picks · 466 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 46%
Hero pool strength55% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:12
Neon Esports 66%South Built Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 21:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinYopaj
PuckBob
BristlebackNatsumi
JuggernautMarb
Sand KingSkem
NecrophosEnryu
MiranaPlayHard
Keeper of the LightJaunuel
Game 2prediction correct34:24
Neon Esports 68%South Built Esports 32%
The model gave 68% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 27:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingNatsumi
Troll WarlordMarb
Sand KingYopaj
TinyBob
Dragon KnightSkem
TuskEnryu
MiranaPlayHard
Ancient ApparitionJaunuel
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 78%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2