ESL One Summer 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 1:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 1:0
CECyberLife eSportsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
CyberLife eSports
Marsoften banned
Actor · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
Actor · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Bombad1l · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
Bombad1l · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Otaker · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Bombad1l · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Otaker · 1 game
Spectreoften banned
Otaker · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
380 picks · 978 bans
Lion
373 picks · 198 bans
Mars
364 picks · 586 bans
Grimstroke
344 picks · 362 bans
Snapfire
293 picks · 171 bans
Tusk
290 picks · 223 bans
Death Prophet
287 picks · 637 bans
Void Spirit
277 picks · 473 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% PuckChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 85%
Series resultPuckChamp 1:0
Series predictioncorrect