ESL One Summer 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Fantastic Fivewin 1:0series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fantastic Five
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 10 games
Puckoften banned
Askold · 8 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 8 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
633 · 7 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
633 · 7 games
Linaoften banned
Muka · 4 games
Slardaroften banned
SuperNova · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Askold · 4 games
Nemiga Gaming
Marssignature
Ainkrad · 20 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Kiritych · 12 games
Oracleoften banned
Lodine · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
Grimstrokesignature
Lodine · 8 games
Lion
Lodine · 8 games
Tusksignature
Lodine · 8 games
Ursaoften banned
tatakae · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
380 picks · 978 bans
Lion
373 picks · 198 bans
Mars
364 picks · 586 bans
Grimstroke
344 picks · 362 bans
Snapfire
293 picks · 171 bans
Tusk
290 picks · 223 bans
Death Prophet
287 picks · 637 bans
Void Spirit
277 picks · 473 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 66%
Hero pool strength50% Fantastic Five
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total61% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 61%
Series resultFantastic Five 1:0
Series predictionmissed