ESL One Summer 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Hellbear Smasherswin 1:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Chicken Fightersloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hellbear Smashers
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 22 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 22 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 20 games
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 19 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 15 games
Tidehuntersignature
MISERY · 15 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
tOfu · 14 games
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 14 games
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
380 picks · 978 bans
Lion
373 picks · 198 bans
Mars
364 picks · 586 bans
Grimstroke
344 picks · 362 bans
Snapfire
293 picks · 171 bans
Tusk
290 picks · 223 bans
Death Prophet
287 picks · 637 bans
Void Spirit
277 picks · 473 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 59%
Hero pool strength59% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total58% Chicken Fighters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Fighters · 58%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 1:0
Series predictionmissed