ESL One Summer 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Into The Breachwin 1:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:0
V-Gamingloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Into The Breach
Marssignature
ATF · 12 games
Linaoften banned
Era · 11 games
Snapfiresignature
Xibbe · 10 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Xibbe · 10 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ATF · 9 games
Witch Doctor
Xibbe · 9 games
Invokersignature
Supream^ · 8 games
Phoenixsignature
Era · 8 games
V-Gaming
Marssignature
laise · 8 games
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 6 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 6 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
TA2000 · 4 games
Rubick
ArrOw · 4 games
Alchemistoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
Oracleoften banned
Malady · 3 games
Puckoften banned
hAze · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
384 picks · 978 bans
Lion
369 picks · 195 bans
Mars
363 picks · 591 bans
Grimstroke
348 picks · 364 bans
Death Prophet
293 picks · 649 bans
Snapfire
291 picks · 168 bans
Tusk
287 picks · 223 bans
Void Spirit
286 picks · 478 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% Into The Breach
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 54%
Series resultInto The Breach 1:0
Series predictioncorrect