ESL One Summer 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
ViKin.ggwin 1:0series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 1:0
KKEKWaitloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ViKin.gg
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 23 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 22 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Aramis · 19 games
Pucksignature
BOOM · 18 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
KheZu · 15 games
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 14 games
Juggernautsignature
Shad · 14 games
Tinysignature
BOOM · 14 games
KEKWait
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
384 picks · 978 bans
Lion
369 picks · 195 bans
Mars
363 picks · 591 bans
Grimstroke
348 picks · 364 bans
Death Prophet
293 picks · 649 bans
Snapfire
291 picks · 168 bans
Tusk
287 picks · 223 bans
Void Spirit
286 picks · 478 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 60%
Hero pool strength61% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 87%
Series resultViKin.gg 1:0
Series predictioncorrect