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ESL One Summer 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Hellbear Smasherswin 1:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Legionloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hellbear Smashers

Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 22 games
77%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 22 games
64%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 20 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 19 games
53%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 15 games
80%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
MISERY · 15 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
tOfu · 14 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 14 games
71%

Team Legion

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
384 picks · 978 bans
49%
Lion
Lion
369 picks · 195 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
363 picks · 591 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
348 picks · 364 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
293 picks · 649 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
291 picks · 168 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
287 picks · 223 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
286 picks · 478 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 43%
Hero pool strength59% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 69%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 1:0
Series predictioncorrect