European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
VValinorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere Junior
Snapfire
Gothic- · 11 games
Spirit Breaker
Gothic- · 10 games
Disruptor
Hyugadoto · 9 games
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 8 games
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 8 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
gbc · 7 games
Jakirooften banned
Hyugadoto · 7 games
Puckoften banned
gbc · 7 games
Valinor
Jakirooften banned
Stoic · 6 games
Tinyoften banned
G.T.I · 6 games
Tusk
Stoic · 6 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Wuiter · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
G.T.I · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Wuiter · 5 games
Phoenix
Wuiter · 5 games
Ringmaster
Jeezy · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
590 picks · 928 bans
Tusk
540 picks · 415 bans
Dragon Knight
494 picks · 654 bans
Centaur Warrunner
492 picks · 638 bans
Shadow Demon
431 picks · 935 bans
Ember Spirit
391 picks · 646 bans
Mars
384 picks · 528 bans
Warlock
376 picks · 231 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)24% vs 47%
Hero pool strength65% Valinor
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Valinor
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:33
Natus Vincere Junior 41%Valinor 59%
The model gave 59% on Valinor — the game was taken by Valinor in 23:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendonLiTaL
TimbersawG.T.I
Brewmasterkrol9ash
MuertaCoblackk
TuskGothic-
Centaur WarrunnerWuiter
DazzleHyugadoto
HoodwinkJeezy
59% · 63 games
Treant ProtectorStoic
Game 2prediction correct12:32
Natus Vincere Junior 42%Valinor 58%
The model gave 58% on Valinor — the game was taken by Valinor in 30:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
NecrophosonLiTaL
Shadow FiendCoblackk
Slardarkrol9ash
TimbersawWuiter
Skywrath MageGothic-
InvokerG.T.I
Treant ProtectorHyugadoto
MarciStoic
46% · 204 games
JakiroJeezy
Model check result
Model favoriteValinor · 61%
Series resultValinor 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2