ESL One Summer 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs predictionKKEKWaitwin 1:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:0
B8 Esportsloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KEKWait
No games played over 6 months.
B8 Esports
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 16 games
Shadow Shaman
[T]SA · 10 games
Enchantressoften banned
Duster · 8 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
RdO · 8 games
Clockwerk
Duster · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Dendi · 7 games
Rubick
[T]SA · 7 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
RdO · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
384 picks · 980 bans
Lion
372 picks · 195 bans
Mars
362 picks · 594 bans
Grimstroke
351 picks · 364 bans
Death Prophet
295 picks · 650 bans
Snapfire
290 picks · 168 bans
Tusk
289 picks · 224 bans
Void Spirit
289 picks · 479 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% KEKWait
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:13
KEKWait 47%B8 Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by KEKWait in 33:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 53%
Series resultKEKWait 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1