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European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
strongboyswin 2:0
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ilbirs eSportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

strongboys

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ponlo · 11 games
45%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lowskill · 10 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Stojkov · 9 games
67%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Ponlo · 9 games
67%
Marci
Marcisignature
ChodΣX · 7 games
71%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
Tobi · 7 games
43%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ChodΣX · 7 games
43%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Tobi · 6 games
33%

Ilbirs eSports

Axe
Axeoften banned
Askold · 1 game
100%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
egx · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
589 picks · 927 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
542 picks · 415 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
495 picks · 656 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
492 picks · 638 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
429 picks · 938 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
391 picks · 644 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
383 picks · 528 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
373 picks · 231 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 27%
Hero pool strength54% Ilbirs eSports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% strongboys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:16
strongboys 71%Ilbirs eSports 29%
The model gave 71% on strongboys — the game was taken by strongboys in 39:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterbashka
55% · 182 games43% · 247 games
Abaddonegx
Abaddon
Leshrac
LeshracStojkov
46% · 138 games48% · 229 games
MarsNorma
Mars
Marci
MarciChodΣX
57% · 172 games53% · 177 games
Dark Willowxsvampire
Dark Willow
Muerta
MuertaPonlo
53% · 128 games
Omniknight
OmniknightUndyne_
49% · 33 games
Game 2prediction correct21:28
strongboys 71%Ilbirs eSports 29%
The model gave 71% on strongboys — the game was taken by strongboys in 42:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinbashka
43% · 140 games49% · 256 games
Gyrocopteregx
Gyrocopter
Leshrac
LeshracStojkov
45% · 89 games46% · 132 games
UnderlordNorma
Underlord
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerChodΣX
54% · 228 games48% · 218 games
Shadow Demonxsvampire
Shadow Demon
Phoenix
PhoenixPonlo
55% · 99 games
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorUndyne_
65% · 50 games
Model check result
Model favoritestrongboys · 85%
Series resultstrongboys 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2