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ESL One Summer 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
MoonLightPlayersloss 0:1
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Nemiga Gamingwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MoonLightPlayers

No games played over 6 months.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Ainkrad · 20 games
60%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Kiritych · 12 games
58%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Lodine · 11 games
36%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
45%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Lodine · 8 games
63%
Lion
Lion
Lodine · 8 games
38%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Lodine · 8 games
75%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
tatakae · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
384 picks · 980 bans
49%
Lion
Lion
372 picks · 195 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
362 picks · 594 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
351 picks · 364 bans
49%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
295 picks · 650 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
290 picks · 168 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
289 picks · 224 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
289 picks · 479 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 69%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:1
Series predictioncorrect