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ESL One Summer 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
TOADloss 0:1
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Empirewin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TOAD

No games played over 6 months.

Team Empire

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
40%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
sayuw · 10 games
40%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
70%
Tusk
Tusksignature
sayuw · 9 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Petushara · 8 games
63%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
sayuw · 8 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 8 games
75%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
384 picks · 980 bans
49%
Lion
Lion
372 picks · 195 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
362 picks · 594 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
351 picks · 364 bans
49%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
295 picks · 650 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
290 picks · 168 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
289 picks · 224 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
289 picks · 479 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 69%
Series resultTeam Empire 0:1
Series predictioncorrect