DreamLeague Season 30. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionKCKA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKIloss 0:1
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Shadow Dancewin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI
No games played over 6 months.
Shadow Dance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
519 picks · 316 bans
Dark Willow
438 picks · 214 bans
Mirana
391 picks · 177 bans
Winter Wyvern
341 picks · 307 bans
Ember Spirit
326 picks · 504 bans
Centaur Warrunner
301 picks · 291 bans
Earth Spirit
281 picks · 513 bans
Windranger
279 picks · 133 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI 90%Shadow Dance 10%
The model gave 90% on KA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI — the game was taken by Shadow Dance.
Model check result
Model favoriteKA4KANARSKIE CYXARIKI · 90%
Series resultShadow Dance 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1