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FISSURE Universe: Episode 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Yandexloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Tusk
Tusksignature
rue · 23 games
70%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 19 games
68%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
rue · 19 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Panto · 17 games
65%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 16 games
75%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 16 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 16 games
56%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 16 games
75%

Team Yandex

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 27 games
74%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Malady · 27 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 21 game
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 20 games
65%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 19 games
79%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
79%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Malady · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
587 picks · 926 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
542 picks · 418 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
494 picks · 656 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
491 picks · 638 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
425 picks · 936 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
389 picks · 643 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
383 picks · 528 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
372 picks · 230 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total52% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:3
Team Spirit 47%Team Yandex 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 24:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaYatoro
52% · 180 games47% · 284 games
Templar AssassinWatson
Templar Assassin
Underlord
UnderlordCollapse
53% · 163 games59% · 40 games
LargoNoticed
Largo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMirele
50% · 394 games49% · 290 games
SlardarChira JUNIOR
Slardar
Jakiro
Jakirorue
46% · 477 games47% · 579 games
TuskMalady
Tusk
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPanto
50% · 274 games52% · 295 games
Shadow ShamanSaksa
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction missed37:28
Team Spirit 50%Team Yandex 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 55:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerYatoro
49% · 265 games42% · 290 games
Queen of PainWatson
Queen of Pain
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirele
56% · 605 games45% · 349 games
Dragon KnightChira JUNIOR
Dragon Knight
Batrider
BatriderCollapse
55% · 448 games50% · 203 games
TidehunterNoticed
Tidehunter
Mirana
MiranaPanto
56% · 91 game49% · 450 games
TinySaksa
Tiny
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterrue
54% · 215 games44% · 332 games
WarlockMalady
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 52%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2