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i-League 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Asterloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 29 games
79%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 26 games
73%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 20 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 19 games
63%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 18 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 18 games
61%
Tusk
Tusksignature
XinQ · 18 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
XinQ · 17 games
53%

Team Aster

Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 24 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
White丶Album · 23 games
61%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 19 games
63%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 14 games
64%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
LaNm · 14 games
57%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Monet · 14 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
LaNm · 13 games
54%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
LaNm · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
392 picks · 1000 bans
49%
Lion
Lion
379 picks · 196 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
372 picks · 601 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
359 picks · 364 bans
49%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
307 picks · 665 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
299 picks · 490 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
296 picks · 227 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
288 picks · 164 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 56%
Hero pool strength54% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total67% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:23
LGD Gaming 55%Team Aster 45%
The model gave 55% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 32:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackNothingToSay
46% · 24 games38% · 26 games
AxeMonet
Axe
Silencer
SilencerAme
little data58% · 12 games
KunkkaWhite丶Album
Kunkka
Hoodwink
HoodwinkXinQ
57% · 3 games50% · 4 games
Outworld DestroyerXxs
Outworld Destroyer
Omniknight
OmniknightFaith_bian
little data54% · 27 games
TimbersawBoBoKa
Timbersaw
Snapfire
Snapfirey`
52% · 73 games51% · 31 game
Ancient ApparitionLaNm
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct31:17
LGD Gaming 58%Team Aster 42%
The model gave 58% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 30:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkXinQ
41% · 29 games47% · 49 games
LinaWhite丶Album
Lina
Viper
ViperAme
49% · 54 games49% · 45 games
MorphlingMonet
Morphling
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernNothingToSay
54% · 19 games62% · 59 games
BatriderXxs
Batrider
Undying
UndyingFaith_bian
44% · 43 games54% · 102 games
PhoenixBoBoKa
Phoenix
Mars
Marsy`
49% · 131 game45% · 21 game
SlardarLaNm
Slardar
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 67%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2