Чемпионат России по Dota 2 · BO3
result vs predictionРМРеспублика Марий Элwin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SESMARACIS eSportloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Республика Марий Эл
No games played over 6 months.
SMARACIS eSport
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
394 picks · 1012 bans
Lion
379 picks · 196 bans
Mars
374 picks · 604 bans
Grimstroke
362 picks · 366 bans
Death Prophet
309 picks · 673 bans
Void Spirit
308 picks · 494 bans
Tusk
298 picks · 227 bans
Snapfire
288 picks · 164 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Республика Марий Эл
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Республика Марий Эл
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteРеспублика Марий Эл · 53%
Series resultРеспублика Марий Эл 2:0
Series predictioncorrect