Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Brameloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Brame
Earth Spiritoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 18 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
SsaSpartan · 17 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 16 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
W1sh- · 13 games
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 12 games
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 12 games
Juggernautoften banned
Focus · 11 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
SsaSpartan · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
394 picks · 1011 bans
Lion
379 picks · 196 bans
Mars
374 picks · 602 bans
Grimstroke
363 picks · 367 bans
Death Prophet
308 picks · 674 bans
Void Spirit
308 picks · 494 bans
Tusk
300 picks · 227 bans
Snapfire
285 picks · 164 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 49%
Hero pool strength51% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:43
PuckChamp 61%Brame 39%
The model gave 61% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Brame in 45:56.
Game 2prediction missed36:37
PuckChamp 61%Brame 39%
The model gave 61% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Brame in 45:08.
Game 3prediction missed30:38
PuckChamp 61%Brame 39%
The model gave 61% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Brame in 51:55.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 61%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3