ESL Challenger China · BO5
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 3:1series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Yakult Brothersloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Warlock
xNova · 19 games
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 15 games
Puckoften banned
Xm · 15 games
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 15 games
Snapfiresignature
fy · 13 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Xxs · 12 games
Disruptor
xNova · 12 games
Hoodwink
fy · 12 games
Yakult Brothers
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 29 games
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 26 games
Puckoften banned
Emo · 25 games
Jakirooften banned
天命 · 21 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
flyfly · 20 games
Batrideroften banned
BoBoKa · 19 games
Marsoften banned
zeal · 19 games
Leshrac
Moon · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
586 picks · 926 bans
Tusk
544 picks · 419 bans
Dragon Knight
492 picks · 659 bans
Centaur Warrunner
489 picks · 639 bans
Shadow Demon
425 picks · 933 bans
Ember Spirit
389 picks · 645 bans
Mars
382 picks · 525 bans
Warlock
370 picks · 230 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 36%
Hero pool strength56% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total86% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:9
Xtreme Gaming 72%Yakult Brothers 28%
The model gave 72% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 41:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightAme
PuckMoon
KunkkaXxs
Centaur WarrunnerYang
Void SpiritNothingToSay
Huskarflyfly
Shadow Demonfy
WeaverBoBoKa
WarlockxNova
Jakiro天命
Game 2prediction missed7:29
Xtreme Gaming 72%Yakult Brothers 28%
The model gave 72% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 28:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterAme
Weaverflyfly
BrewmasterXxs
TimbersawYang
EarthshakerNothingToSay
Storm SpiritMoon
Faceless Voidfy
MuertaBoBoKa
WarlockxNova
Disruptor天命
Game 3prediction correct19:9
Xtreme Gaming 74%Yakult Brothers 26%
The model gave 74% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 29:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistAme
Templar Assassinflyfly
Dragon KnightNothingToSay
UndyingYang
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
TinyMoon
Treant Protectorfy
MuertaBoBoKa
Ancient ApparitionxNova
Largo天命
Game 4prediction correct31:13
Xtreme Gaming 72%Yakult Brothers 28%
The model gave 72% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 44:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterAme
Kezflyfly
Queen of PainNothingToSay
LeshracMoon
MarsXxs
BatriderYang
Dark Willowfy
MagnusBoBoKa
Treant ProtectorxNova
Largo天命
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 86%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4