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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Ori · 21 game
62%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 17 games
76%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 17 games
88%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ELeVeN · 16 games
69%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Dy · 15 games
67%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Dy · 14 games
79%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 14 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Dy · 13 games
54%

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 28 games
79%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 26 games
73%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 20 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 19 games
63%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 18 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 18 games
61%
Tusk
Tusksignature
XinQ · 18 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
XinQ · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
395 picks · 1011 bans
49%
Lion
Lion
377 picks · 194 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
376 picks · 602 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
364 picks · 367 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
310 picks · 494 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
308 picks · 676 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
301 picks · 228 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
283 picks · 162 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 68%
Hero pool strength50% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total60% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:18
Vici Gaming 44%LGD Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 38:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherELeVeN
46% · 19 games56% · 48 games
TimbersawFaith_bian
Timbersaw
Bristleback
BristlebackOri
53% · 23 games56% · 34 games
DoomNothingToSay
Doom
Spectre
Spectrepoyoyo
34% · 23 games54% · 27 games
MagnusAme
Magnus
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPyw
51% · 44 games49% · 60 games
LeshracXinQ
Leshrac
Snapfire
SnapfireDy
50% · 79 games41% · 19 games
Warlocky`
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct25:37
Vici Gaming 44%LGD Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 39:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracOri
52% · 68 games57% · 38 games
Faceless VoidAme
Faceless Void
Lifestealer
Lifestealerpoyoyo
44% · 33 games53% · 51 game
LinaNothingToSay
Lina
Lycan
LycanELeVeN
64% · 10 games40% · 38 games
Legion CommanderFaith_bian
Legion Commander
Lion
LionPyw
47% · 139 games50% · 99 games
SnapfireXinQ
Snapfire
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorDy
60% · 35 games45% · 59 games
Clockwerky`
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct8:41
Vici Gaming 46%LGD Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 36:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawELeVeN
55% · 76 games41% · 103 games
UrsaAme
Ursa
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinpoyoyo
50% · 64 games46% · 281 game
PuckNothingToSay
Puck
Death Prophet
Death ProphetOri
51% · 180 games45% · 88 games
BloodseekerFaith_bian
Bloodseeker
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinPyw
57% · 132 games53% · 138 games
PangolierXinQ
Pangolier
Lion
LionDy
52% · 185 games53% · 27 games
Warlocky`
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 60%
Series resultLGD Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3