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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Aster.Ariesloss 0:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:1
LBZSwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aster.Aries

Mars
Marsoften banned
生死 · 12 games
42%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Fantasy · 9 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
phoenix · 8 games
13%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Fantasy · 7 games
29%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
生死 · 7 games
43%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 7 games
43%
Tusk
Tusk
Fantasy · 6 games
17%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Ulu · 6 games
50%

LBZS

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
CatYou · 16 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 13 games
46%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
xiaofu · 7 games
29%
Mars
Marssignature
Irving · 7 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
CatYou · 7 games
29%
Sand King
Sand King
Irving · 7 games
57%
Lion
Lion
CatYou · 6 games
50%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
MS · 6 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
396 picks · 1011 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
377 picks · 195 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
377 picks · 600 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
364 picks · 367 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
311 picks · 495 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
308 picks · 677 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
301 picks · 227 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
282 picks · 162 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 46%
Hero pool strength55% LBZS
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total64% Aster.Aries
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:27
Aster.Aries 57%LBZS 43%
The model gave 57% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by LBZS in 28:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaUlu
46% · 63 games58% · 29 games
BristlebackIrving
Bristleback
Broodmother
Broodmotherphoenix
64% · 22 games48% · 30 games
SvenMS
Sven
Legion Commander
Legion Commander生死
49% · 29 games49% · 43 games
Earth SpiritCatYou
Earth Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireFantasy
45% · 87 games51% · 99 games
Grimstrokexiaofu
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteAster.Aries · 64%
Series resultLBZS 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1