Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
5ManMidasloss 0:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Arkosh Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
Arkosh Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
397 picks · 1009 bans
Lion
376 picks · 194 bans
Mars
376 picks · 601 bans
Grimstroke
365 picks · 367 bans
Void Spirit
312 picks · 493 bans
Death Prophet
306 picks · 674 bans
Tusk
299 picks · 226 bans
Snapfire
282 picks · 160 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)28% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% 5ManMidas
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total69% Arkosh Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:29
5ManMidas 31%Arkosh Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 26:52.
Game 2prediction correct33:9
5ManMidas 31%Arkosh Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 27:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteArkosh Gaming · 69%
Series resultArkosh Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2