Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Brameloss 0:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Tundra Esportswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Brame
Earth Spiritoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 18 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
SsaSpartan · 17 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 16 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
W1sh- · 13 games
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 12 games
Juggernautoften banned
Focus · 11 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
SsaSpartan · 11 games
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 11 games
Tundra Esports
Puckoften banned
Nine · 11 games
Snapfire
Sneyking · 6 games
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 6 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Skiter · 6 games
Abaddonoften banned
Fata · 5 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Fata · 5 games
Clockwerk
Sneyking · 5 games
Dark Seeroften banned
33 · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
398 picks · 1012 bans
Lion
376 picks · 194 bans
Mars
376 picks · 605 bans
Grimstroke
366 picks · 367 bans
Void Spirit
314 picks · 495 bans
Death Prophet
307 picks · 677 bans
Tusk
302 picks · 226 bans
Snapfire
282 picks · 159 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Brame
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:26
Brame 51%Tundra Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Brame — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 46:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenFocus
Faceless VoidSkiter
Dragon KnightW1sh-
Timbersaw33
LinaCTOMAHEH1
PuckNine
OmniknightSkyLark
Ancient ApparitionFata
OracleSsaSpartan
ClockwerkSneyking
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 53%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1