Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 1:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:0
OGloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Puckoften banned
Nine · 10 games
Snapfire
Sneyking · 6 games
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 6 games
Abaddonoften banned
Fata · 5 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Fata · 5 games
Clockwerk
Sneyking · 5 games
Dark Seeroften banned
33 · 5 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Fata · 5 games
OG
Earth Spiritsignature
Saksa · 8 games
Alchemistoften banned
Ceb · 7 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Saksa · 6 games
Puckoften banned
Topson · 6 games
Rikisignature
Topson · 6 games
Clockwerk
Saksa · 5 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Ceb · 5 games
Dark Willow
Saksa · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
397 picks · 1013 bans
Lion
376 picks · 194 bans
Mars
376 picks · 605 bans
Grimstroke
367 picks · 367 bans
Void Spirit
315 picks · 496 bans
Death Prophet
307 picks · 679 bans
Tusk
302 picks · 226 bans
Snapfire
282 picks · 158 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 47%
Hero pool strength56% OG
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total52% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:16
Tundra Esports 52%OG 48%
The model gave 52% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 29:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordSkiter
Wraith KingMadara
PuckNine
TinyTopson
Timbersaw33
Monkey KingCeb
EnigmaSneyking
Elder Titann0tail
Treant ProtectorFata
LinaSaksa
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 52%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1