Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
T1win 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TNC Predatorloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
TNC Predator
Beastmastersignature
kpii · 11 games
Mirana
Tims · 9 games
Lionsignature
Tims · 7 games
Pucksignature
Armel · 7 games
Tiny
Gabbi · 7 games
Morphlingsignature
Gabbi · 6 games
Oracleoften banned
Febby · 6 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Armel · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
401 picks · 1014 bans
Mars
376 picks · 607 bans
Lion
375 picks · 193 bans
Grimstroke
366 picks · 367 bans
Void Spirit
316 picks · 503 bans
Death Prophet
310 picks · 681 bans
Tusk
304 picks · 226 bans
Snapfire
279 picks · 156 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% TNC Predator
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% TNC Predator
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:15
T1 47%TNC Predator 53%
The model gave 53% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 43:26.
Game 2prediction correct9:30
T1 47%TNC Predator 53%
The model gave 53% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 30:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC Predator · 53%
Series resultT1 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2