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i-League 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEloss 1:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Asterwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EHOME

Mars
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 20 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 20 games
65%
Tusk
Tusk
xNova · 20 games
45%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Frisk · 14 games
43%
Luna
Lunasignature
Frisk · 11 games
64%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
xNova · 10 games
90%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Sylar · 10 games
80%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chalice · 10 games
80%

Team Aster

Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 24 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
White丶Album · 23 games
61%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 19 games
63%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
LaNm · 14 games
57%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Monet · 14 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
LaNm · 13 games
54%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 13 games
62%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
White丶Album · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
401 picks · 1011 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
375 picks · 609 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
372 picks · 192 bans
48%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
364 picks · 367 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
316 picks · 502 bans
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
307 picks · 680 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
305 picks · 225 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
278 picks · 154 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% Team Aster
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total57% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:32
EHOME 47%Team Aster 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 45:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreSylar
42% · 22 games40% · 18 games
BroodmotherXxs
Broodmother
Pugna
PugnaXm
44% · 5 games48% · 30 games
AxeMonet
Axe
Mars
MarsChalice
50% · 126 games46% · 73 games
LeshracWhite丶Album
Leshrac
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorxNova
52% · 24 games57% · 46 games
TimbersawBoBoKa
Timbersaw
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonFrisk
57% · 34 games57% · 44 games
Ancient ApparitionLaNm
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed35:23
EHOME 46%Team Aster 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Aster — the game was taken by EHOME in 44:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingXm
44% · 83 games51% · 29 games
Phantom LancerMonet
Phantom Lancer
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSylar
55% · 82 games46% · 106 games
Death ProphetWhite丶Album
Death Prophet
Axe
AxeChalice
54% · 34 games48% · 60 games
Ancient ApparitionXxs
Ancient Apparition
Phoenix
PhoenixFrisk
48% · 117 games54% · 59 games
TimbersawBoBoKa
Timbersaw
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterxNova
48% · 11 games52% · 73 games
Nyx AssassinLaNm
Nyx Assassin
Game 3prediction correct20:41
EHOME 50%Team Aster 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 36:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSylar
51% · 47 games55% · 53 games
AxeMonet
Axe
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidXm
57% · 22 games51% · 130 games
Death ProphetWhite丶Album
Death Prophet
Doom
DoomChalice
50% · 26 games52% · 59 games
LinaBoBoKa
Lina
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeFrisk
43% · 105 games48% · 37 games
BristlebackXxs
Bristleback
Lion
LionxNova
50% · 89 games40% · 10 games
Spirit BreakerLaNm
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 57%
Series resultTeam Aster 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3