Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fnaticloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 14 games
Marssignature
Rupido · 11 games
Elder Titansignature
RR · 9 games
Oracleoften banned
RR · 8 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Force · 7 games
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Yowe · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
401 picks · 1011 bans
Mars
375 picks · 609 bans
Lion
372 picks · 192 bans
Grimstroke
364 picks · 367 bans
Void Spirit
316 picks · 502 bans
Death Prophet
307 picks · 680 bans
Tusk
305 picks · 225 bans
Snapfire
278 picks · 154 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Execration
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total51% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:23
Execration 49%Fnatic 51%
The model gave 51% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Execration in 47:24.
Game 2prediction missed30:27
Execration 49%Fnatic 51%
The model gave 51% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Execration in 38:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 51%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2