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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 1:0
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Neon Esportsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Hyde · 9 games
44%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Hyde · 9 games
89%
Mars
Marssignature
Fbz · 8 games
63%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Khezcute · 7 games
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Khezcute · 6 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 6 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Mikoto · 5 games
40%
Io
Iooften banned
Dreamocel · 5 games
80%

Neon Esports

Puck
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 22 games
68%
Mirana
Mirana
PlayHard · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 14 games
79%
Sand King
Sand King
Yopaj · 13 games
54%
Tusk
Tusk
PlayHard · 13 games
54%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
PlayHard · 12 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 12 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Skem · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
401 picks · 1011 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
375 picks · 611 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
371 picks · 192 bans
48%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
364 picks · 367 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
317 picks · 503 bans
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
307 picks · 680 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
307 picks · 225 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
277 picks · 154 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 39%
Hero pool strength52% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total68% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:27
BOOM Esports 42%Neon Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 42:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMikoto
58% · 48 games38% · 46 games
GyrocopterYopaj
Gyrocopter
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetFbz
52% · 55 games36% · 69 games
UrsaNatsumi
Ursa
Bristleback
BristlebackDreamocel
52% · 35 games49% · 87 games
Centaur WarrunnerSkem
Centaur Warrunner
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinHyde
62% · 119 games42% · 62 games
AbaddonJaunuel
Abaddon
Snapfire
SnapfireKhezcute
57% · 134 games47% · 127 games
LionPlayHard
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 68%
Series resultBOOM Esports 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1