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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Omega Esportswin 1:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Omega Esports

Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Mac · 15 games
60%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
cml · 13 games
69%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Sam_H · 10 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
Tino- · 10 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Tino- · 8 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mac · 8 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
cml · 8 games
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 8 games
63%

BOOM Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Hyde · 9 games
44%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Hyde · 9 games
89%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Khezcute · 7 games
57%
Mars
Marssignature
Fbz · 7 games
71%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Khezcute · 6 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 6 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Mikoto · 5 games
40%
Io
Iooften banned
Dreamocel · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
401 picks · 1011 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
374 picks · 611 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
371 picks · 192 bans
48%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
364 picks · 367 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
317 picks · 503 bans
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
307 picks · 680 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
307 picks · 225 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
276 picks · 154 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% Omega Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Omega Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:28
Omega Esports 53%BOOM Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 1:01:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackMac
52% · 34 gameslittle data
LifestealerDreamocel
Lifestealer
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderSam_H
49% · 39 games37% · 11 games
Dragon KnightMikoto
Dragon Knight
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkcml
43% · 10 games57% · 48 games
MarsFbz
Mars
Arc Warden
Arc WardenTino-
31% · 9 games57% · 3 games
Ancient ApparitionKhezcute
Ancient Apparition
52% · 30 games
SnapfireHyde
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Esports · 57%
Series resultOmega Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1